Analysis predicts 32-seat gain for Democrats
A new study, "Forecasting House Seats from Generic Congressional
Polls," authored by Assistant Professor of Government Joseph Bafumi,
predicts that based on current ballot polling data, the Democratic party can
expect to gain 32 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 7
midterm Congressional elections. Such a gain would guarantee the Democrats a
House majority and exceed many current forecasts for Democratic gains in the
House.
Joseph Bafumi
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The study, coauthored by Robert Erikson of Columbia University and
Christopher Wlezien of Temple University, translates the results of generic
Congressional polls conducted by CNN, USA Today/Gallup,
ABC/Washington Post, Fox/Opinion Dynamics and Newsweek into
the partisan midterm swing. The polling data they used asked respondents which
party they would choose in the next election. According to that analysis,
Democratic Congressional candidates are predicted to receive 55 percent of the
votes cast, plus or minus a few percentage points.
The study then goes on to analyze whether that majority of votes is likely
to translate into a majority of House seats. Combining the partisan swing,
estimated from the generic Congressional polls, with historical data at the
Congressional district level, the authors predict which party will win each
district race. They found that if Democrats receive even 53 percent of votes
cast, the probability that they will win enough seats to take over the House
increases to more than 90 percent.
Although Bafumi and his colleagues are far from the first prognosticators to
analyze poll data as a predictor of a party's political fortunes, their
analysis differs from that of most pollsters and pundits in its rigorous and
nonpartisan evaluation of the true statistical value of polling. According to
Bafumi, "This sophisticated statistical model suggests that the Democrats
should out-perform the expectations of many in 2006."
By GENEVIEVE HAAS
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