The Fixed Investment Picture

Mon, 05 May 2008 16:32:50 +0000

That we are not in a recession, based on weak GDP growth and a host of other macroeconomic indicators that have been flat since last summer, is quite remarkable. Here's the path of quarterly investment as a share of GDP:

Note that the fall in residential investment has been just as large and even steeper than the decline in equipment and software investment that was the driver of the last recession. Equipment and software investment fell to and has hovered around the share of GDP that it was in 1993. Residential investment has fallen to that level. It's not clear when the fall will stop.