Projects

China, the United States, and the Struggle for the Pacific

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Energy Competition in East Asia

China, through its national oil companies, has recently attracted a great deal of media and scholarly attention in its effort to negotiate drilling rights and other preferential deals with oil producers. But does such ownership of oil really bring strategic advantages? Clearly Beijing, New Delhi, Seoul, and Tokyo believe that it does; furthermore, U.S. leaders and analysts warn that China's policies will allow it to "lock up" oil supplies around the world. On the other hand, other analysts express skepticism that equity ownership of oil benefits a government in any real way, relative to simply purchasing oil on international spot markets. Indeed, some analysts argue that through its pursuit of oil ownership, China is overpaying for its oil. Who, then is right: the governments expending valuable resources in pursuit of equity oil, or these analysts who shrug that equity oil is inefficient and does not enhance a country's energy security?

After examining this question, this project may also explore a follow-up question: if it is true that equity oil ownership does not confer important strategic advantages, why are governments adopting this policy? One might be tempted to dismiss China as a developing country with inexperience in the oil industry; alternatively, one might argue that its domestic politics leads to organizational or bureaucratic policies that are economically inefficient (for example, top management of China's national oil companies are Communist Party cadres). But this does not explain similar efforts in South Korea, Japan, and India. Are governments pursuing equity oil because of capture by domestic interest groups? Or are their policies the result of misperception or panics (for example, caused by the experience of the OPEC oil crisis as well as other times of shortage)?

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How Great Powers Rise

This book analyzes the path that rising powers travel to become great powers, with the goal of shedding light on China's rise. Part I looks at economic trajectories. How long have rising powers been able to maintain high growth rates, and how have their growth rates declined as their GDP per capita rose? Does increasing wealth trigger economic changes that undermine the rising power's competitive advantage? What factors allow some rising powers to sustain high growth rates for longer than others? Part II assesses how quickly and effectively rising powers develop military power. How long does it take for rising powers to develop first-rate military capabilities, which can rival the leading state in the rising power's neighborhood? How long to develop global power projection capabilities? Have changes in technology made it easier or harder for rising powers to catch up militarily? Part III of the book looks at social forces within rising powers. Does the middle classes of rising powers demand political empowerment and expensive social safety nets, and how do social changes affect the nature of the country's foreign policy?

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