GLOBAL TRENDS 2020

What will the world be like 15 years from now?  While we may not be able to clear the clouded crystal ball—and may not be lucky enough to be around then—our study will surely provide us with many of the key trends to monitor as the years go by.

This course is a follow-on to Global Trends 2015, (presented at ILEAD/AIL four years ago), and will use as a text:  Mapping the Global Future, a 119-page report issued by the National Intelligence Council.  Although many of the topics offered are similar to those of four years ago—demographics, natural resources and the environment, science and technology, globalization, governance, and conflict—they are arranged under four new major headings that should facilitate interactive discussions:

Contradictions of Globalization
Rising Powers
New Challenges to Governance, and
Pervasive Insecurity

As was the case for the last Global Trends, participants will be polled in advance to determine their interests and experience.  They will be encouraged to provide short oral comments to the group on topics of their choice from the syllabus.  This feature worked well in promoting extensive participation and facilitating discussion the last time. 

This is a seminar, not a lecture course.  The text can be sampled on the internet at http://www.cia.gov/nic/NIC_2020_project.html or try "Mapping the Global Future" on google.  The Study Leader expects to offer a reproduced text or CD and many handouts for about $20.

Class is limited to 20 members.

GEORGE MONTGOMERY  served in the Navy for more than 30 years in aviation, cryptologic, diplomatic, and intelligence billets.  He was the first translator assigned to the Washington-Moscow "Hot Line" served over two years in Vietnam waters, was Naval Attache to the Soviet Union, and Acting National Intelligence Officer for Conventional Forces.  His last 20 years of government service were with the National Intelligence Council.  He has offered nine study group efforts on various subjects for ILEAD and AIL.