New papers
1. Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google (with Bo Cowgill and Justin Wolfers)
2. An Eliot Effect? Prosecutorial Discretion in Mutual Fund Settlement Negotiations, 2003-7
3. When Should Firms Share Credit with Employees? Evidence from Anonymously Managed Mutual Funds (with Massimo Massa and Jonathan Reuter)
4. Price Discovery Among the Punters: Using New Financial Betting Markets to Predict Intraday Volatility
Coming soon
1. When Benchmarks Indices Have Alpha: Problems with Performance Evaluation (with Martijn Cremers and Antti Petajisto). Received a 2007 research grant from the Q group.
2. Is There a Favorite-Longshot Bias in Election Markets? (with Andrew Leigh and Justin Wolfers). Preliminary version presented at the 2007 UC Riverside conference on Prediction Markets.
Publications
1. Party Influence in Congress and the Economy, Quarterly Journal of Political Science, August 2007 (with Erik Snowberg and Justin Wolfers).
2. Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections, Quarterly Journal of Economics, May 2007 (with Erik Snowberg and Justin Wolfers).
3. Do Ads Influence Editors? Advertising and Bias in the Financial Media, Quarterly Journal of Economics, May 2006 (with Jonathan Reuter).
4. How Widespread was Late Trading in Mutual Funds? American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings, May 2006 (link is to longer version referenced in the P&P).
5. Nationalism in Winter Sports Judging and its Lessons for Organizational Decision Making, Journal of Economics and Management Strategy, Winter 2006.
6. Retrospective and Prospective Analysis of School Inputs: the Case of Flip Charts in Kenya, Journal of Development Economics, June 2004 (with Paul Glewwe, Michael Kremer, and Sylvie Moulin).
7. Prediction Markets, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Winter 2004 (with Justin Wolfers).
8. Who Cares About Shareholders? Arbitrage-proofing Mutual Funds, Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, October 2003.
9. Competition and Productivity in the U.S. and UK Tobacco Industry, 1879-1939, Journal of Industrial Economics, March 2003.
· My reply to a comment by Leslie Hannah.
Working papers
1. Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities (with Justin Wolfers). NBER Working Paper No. 12200.
2. Using Markets to Inform Policy: the Case of the Iraq War (with Justin Wolfers).
· Draws on What Do Financial Markets Think of War in Iraq (with Andrew Leigh and Justin Wolfers). NBER Working Paper No. 9587.
3. Another Kind of `Weekend Effect’ in Financial Markets
4. Regulation Fair Disclosure and the Private Information of Analysts
5. Measuring Exaggeration and Herding by Equity Analysts
6. Opinion Producing Agents: Career Concerns and Herding
7. A Strategic Rationale for Imperfect Disclosure
Book Chapters
1. Retail Securities Regulation in the Aftermath of the Bubble, in Economic Regulation and Its Reform: What Have We Learned? ed. Nancy Rose, University of Chicago Press, forthcoming.
2. Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice, entry for the New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd edition, ed. Lawrence Blume and Steven Durlauf, forthcoming (with Justin Wolfers).
3. Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets, in Information Markets: A New Way of Making Decisions in the Public and Private Sectors, ed. Robert Hahn and Paul Tetlock, AEI-Brookings Press, 2006 (with Justin Wolfers).
4. Information (In)efficiency in Prediction Markets in Information Efficiency in Financial and Betting Markets, ed. Leighton Vaughn Williams, Cambridge University Press, 2005 (with Erik Snowberg and Justin Wolfers).
5. Service Sector Productivity Comparisons: a Business Approach in New Developments in Productivity Analysis, ed. Charles Hulten, Edwin Dean, and Michael Harper, University of Chicago Press, 2001 (with Martin Baily).
6. Extending the East Asian Miracle: Microeconomic Evidence from Korea, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Microeconomics, 1998 (with Martin Baily).
