Associate Professor of Economics
6106 Rockefeller Hall
Hanover, NH 03755
3. Forensic Economics (in preparation for the Journal of Economic Literature)
The Google Papers
· Received a 2007 research grant from the Q group
· Best Investments Paper at 2009 FMA conference in Turin
· Common Fund Prize on Endowment and Foundation Management, presented at 2009 EFA conference in Bergen
· Data on our index-based factor returns
2. Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities (with Justin Wolfers). NBER Working Paper No. 12200.
1. When Should Firms Share Credit with Employees? Evidence from Anonymously Managed Mutual Funds (with Massimo Massa and Jonathan Reuter), Journal of Financial Economics, forthcoming
2. An Eliot Effect? Prosecutorial Discretion in Mutual Fund Settlement Negotiations, 2003-7, BE Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy (Contributions), 2009(1)
3. Using Markets to Inform Policy: the Case of the Iraq War (with Justin Wolfers), Economica, April 2009
4. The Promise of Prediction Markets, Science, May 16, 2008 (joint with 18 co-authors)
6. Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections, Quarterly Journal of Economics, May 2007 (with Erik Snowberg and Justin Wolfers)
7. Do Ads Influence Editors? Advertising and Bias in the Financial Media, Quarterly Journal of Economics, May 2006 (with Jonathan Reuter)
8. How Widespread was Late Trading in Mutual Funds? American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings, May 2006 (link is to longer version referenced in the P&P)
9. Nationalism in Winter Sports Judging and its Lessons for Organizational Decision Making, Journal of Economics and Management Strategy, Winter 2006
10. Retrospective and Prospective Analysis of School Inputs: the Case of Flip Charts in Kenya, Journal of Development Economics, June 2004 (with Paul Glewwe, Michael Kremer, and Sylvie Moulin)
12. Who Cares About Shareholders? Arbitrage-proofing Mutual Funds, Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, October 2003
13. Competition and Productivity in the U.S. and UK Tobacco Industry, 1879-1939, Journal of Industrial Economics, March 2003
Older working papers
Book Chapters and Reviews
1. Review of Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making by Michael Abramowitz, Journal of Economic Literature, March 2009.
2. Retail Securities Regulation in the Aftermath of the Bubble, in Economic Regulation and Its Reform: What Have We Learned? ed. Nancy Rose, University of Chicago Press, forthcoming.
4. Prediction Markets: from Politics to Business (and Back) in Handbooks in Finance: Handbook of Sports and Lottery Markets, ed. Donald Hausch and William Ziemba, North-Holland, 2008 (with Erik Snowberg and Justin Wolfers).
5. Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets, in Information Markets: A New Way of Making Decisions in the Public and Private Sectors, ed. Robert Hahn and Paul Tetlock, AEI-Brookings Press, 2006 (with Justin Wolfers).
6. Information (In)efficiency in Prediction Markets in Information Efficiency in Financial and Betting Markets, ed. Leighton Vaughn Williams, Cambridge University Press, 2005 (with Erik Snowberg and Justin Wolfers).
7. Service Sector Productivity Comparisons: a Business Approach in New Developments in Productivity Analysis, ed. Charles Hulten, Edwin Dean, and Michael Harper, University of Chicago Press, 2001 (with Martin Baily).
8. Extending the East Asian Miracle: Microeconomic Evidence from Korea, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Microeconomics, 1998 (with Martin Baily).
Recent popular writing
1. Quantifying the Nightmare Scenarios II: Why Have Long-Term Interest Rates Risen?, Freakonomics blog, 6/15/2009.
2. Quantifying the Nightmare Scenarios, Freakonomics blog, 3/2/2009.
3. Edwards Dropout Offers Boost to Obama, Wall Street Journal Online, 1/31/2008 (with Justin Wolfers).