Iben Browning's prediction of a 1990 earthquake on the New Madrid fault (Missouri)

Why was Browning's prediction taken seriously?

Awareness of the huge 1811-12 New Madrid earthquakes and modern studies in the area.
Heightening of Midwestern earthquake awareness by the 1989 Loma Prieta ("World Series") earthquake.
Public debate in Memphis and St. Louis concerning need for seismic building codes.
Browning's image and his claimed successful predictions.
Independent endorsement of the prediction by a perceived reliable authority [Stewart].
Inexperience of regional scientists, media, and public with earthquake pseudo-science.
Failure of seismologists to actively refute the prediction.
Media need for a good story.
Public appetite for success of a non-mainstream pronouncement.
Summer 1990 release of FEMA [Federal Emergency Management Administration] report on hypothetical earthquake losses in St. Louis.
Magnitude 4.7 earthquake near Cape Girardeau, Mo., on September 26, 1990.
Increasing media coverage on earthquake topics.
Broadcast, in mid-November 1990, of a television mini-series about an earthquake disaster.
Tardiness of NEPEC's [National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council] debunking of prediction.
Autonomous action by emergency preparedness officers.
Distribution of much earthquake preparedness information without any disclaimer of Browning's prediction.
Great number of school closings.

Lessons learned:

In-house press officers need to alert scientific management to increasing media coverage.
Scientific management must respond to and have evaluated promptly any earthquake prediction that attracts increasing media coverage.
Media need reliable and appropriately packaged information. Media need to verify sources and to interview independent experts.
Entire pyramid of emergency preparedness officers needs reliable and appropriately packaged information.
Publicity surrounding a predicted earthquake must be actively coordinated.
Release of emergency preparedness information may unwittingly endorse an unfounded prediction. Preparedness information must include authoritative evaluation of the prediction.

From Spence, W., Herrman, R. B., Johnston, A. C. and Reagor, G., 1993, Responses to Iben Browning's Prediction of a 1990 New Madrid, Missouri, Earthquake, United States Geological Survey Circular 1083, 248 pp.