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{mso-style-name:""; mso-gram-e:yes;} span.SpellE6 {mso-style-name:""; mso-spl-e:yes;} span.GramE11 {mso-style-name:""; mso-gram-e:yes;} span.SpellE7 {mso-style-name:""; mso-spl-e:yes;} .style1 {font-size: 12pt} --> </style> <!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";} </style> <![endif]--> <meta name=author content="Douglas Irwin"> <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:shapedefaults v:ext="edit" spidmax="8194"/> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:shapelayout v:ext="edit"> <o:idmap v:ext="edit" data="1"/> </o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--> </head> <body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=blue style='tab-interval:.5in;margin-right: .5in'> <div class=Section1> <table width="90%" border="0" cellspacing="4" cellpadding="4"> <tr> <td><p style="font-size:14.0pt;color:red">Recent Papers by Douglas Irwin</p> <p style="font-size:14.0pt;color:red">&nbsp;</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span class="style1" style='color:black'>Note: Many of these papers are also available from the </span><span class="style1"><a href="http://www.nber.org">NBER</a> </span><span class="style1" style='color:black'>. You will need Acrobat to view these files.</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td><p class=MsoNormal1 style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'><a href="docs/Creation.pdf"><span class=GramE1>The Creation of the GATT</span></a><span class=GramE1>.</span><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>  </span>This Draft:<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>  </span>September 2007.</p> <p class=MsoNormal1 style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'>This chapter tells the story of how we got the <st1:stockticker w:st="on">GATT</st1:stockticker> in 1947.</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p><a href="docs/TRI.pdf"><span class=GramE2>Trade Restrictiveness and Deadweight Losses from U.S. Tariffs</span></a><span class=GramE2><span style='color:black'>.</span></span><span style='color:black'> <span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span><span class=GramE2>Revised Draft: December 2008.</span> <br> <br> This paper uses detailed tariff data to calculate the Anderson-<span class=SpellE1>Neary</span> (2005) trade restrictiveness index (TRI) for the <st1:country-region w:st="on"> <st1:place w:st="on">United States</st1:place> </st1:country-region> in 1859 and annually from 1867 to 1961. The TRI is defined as the uniform tariff that yields the same welfare loss as an existing tariff structure. The import-weighted average tariff understates the TRI by about 70 percent over this period. This approach also yields annual estimates of the static welfare loss from the tariff structure; the largest losses occur in the early 1870s (about one percent of <st1:stockticker w:st="on">GDP</st1:stockticker> ) but they fall almost continuously thereafter to less than one-tenth of one percent of <st1:stockticker w:st="on">GDP</st1:stockticker> by the early 1960s. </span></p> <p>&nbsp;</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p><a href="docs/Incidence.pdf">Tariff Incidence in America's Gilded Age</a><span style='color:black'>. Journal of Economic History, September 2007.<br> <br> In the late nineteenth century, the <st1:country-region w:st="on"> <st1:place w:st="on">United States</st1:place> </st1:country-region> imposed high tariffs to protect domestic manufacturers from foreign competition. This paper examines the magnitude of protection given to import-competing producers and the costs imposed on export-oriented producers by focusing on changes in the domestic prices of traded goods relative to non-traded goods. Because the tariff increased the prices of non-traded goods, the degree of protection was much less than indicated by nominal rates of protection; the results here suggest that the 30 percent average tariff on imports yielded just a 12 percent implicit subsidy to import-competing producers while effectively taxing exporters at a rate of 14 percent. The paper also finds that tariff policy redistributed large amounts of income (about 9 percent of <st1:stockticker w:st="on">GDP</st1:stockticker> ) across groups, although the impact on consumers was roughly neutral because they devoted a sizeable share of their expenditures to exportable goods. These findings may explain why import-competing producers pressed for even greater protection in the face of already high tariffs and why consumers (as voters) did not strongly oppose the policy. </span></p> <p>&nbsp;</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p class=MsoNormal2 style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'><a href="docs/internal2.pdf">Antebellum Tariff Politics: Regional Coalitions and Shifting Economic Interests</a><span style='color:black'>. Journal of Law and Economics, November 2008.</span></p> <p class=MsoNormal2> <o:p>&nbsp;</o:p> </p> <p><span style='color:black'>Throughout <st1:country-region w:st="on"> <st1:place w:st="on">U.S.</st1:place> </st1:country-region> history, import tariffs been put on a sustained downward path in only two instances: from the mid-1830s until the Civil War and from the mid-1930s to the present. This paper analyzes how the movement toward higher tariffs in the 1820s was reversed for the rest of the antebellum period. In the 1820s, a coalition in Congress between the North and West raised tariffs by exchanging votes on import duties for spending on internal improvements. President Andrew Jackson effectively delinked these issues and destroyed the North-West alliance by vetoing several internal improvements bills. <st1:State w:st="on"> <st1:place w:st="on">South Carolina'</st1:place> </st1:State> s refusal to enforce the existing high tariffs sparked the nullification crisis and paved the way for the Compromise Tariff of 1833, which phased out tariffs above 20 percent over a nine year period. Although Congress could not credibly commit to implementing the staged reductions or maintaining the lower duties, the growing economic interest of the West in exporting grains due, ironically, to transportation improvements gave it a stake in maintaining <span class=GramE3>a lower</span> tariff equilibrium in cooperation with the South.</span></p> <p>&nbsp;</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p><a href="docs/Antebellum Iron.pdf">The Antebellum U.S. Iron Industry: Domestic Production and Foreign Competition</a><span style='color:black'>, coauthored with Joseph H. Davis. This Draft: June 2007.</span></p> <p class=MsoNormal3> <o:p>&nbsp;</o:p> </p> <p><span style='color:black'>This paper presents new estimates of annual <st1:country-region w:st="on"> <st1:place w:st="on">U.S.</st1:place> </st1:country-region> production of pig iron dating back to 1827. These estimates are used to assess the vulnerability of the antebellum iron industry to foreign competition and the role of the tariff in fostering the industry's early development. Domestic pig iron production is found to be highly sensitive to changes in import prices. Although import price fluctuations had a much greater impact on <st1:country-region w:st="on"> <st1:place w:st="on">U.S.</st1:place> </st1:country-region> production than changes in import duties, the tariff permitted domestic output to be about one-third to one-half larger than it would have been without protection.</span></p> <p>&nbsp;</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p><a href="docs/ip.pdf">Trade Disruptions and America's Early Industrialization</a><span style='color:black'>, co-authored with Joseph H. Davis. This Draft: June 2003.</span></p> <p class=MsoNormal4> <o:p>&nbsp;</o:p> </p> <p><span style='color:black'>Between 1807 and 1815, U.S. imports of manufactured goods were severely cut by Jefferson's trade embargo, subsequent non-importation measures, and the War of 1812. These disruptions are commonly believed to have spurred early U.S. industrialization by promoting the growth of nascent domestic manufacturers. This paper uses a newly available series on U.S. industrial production to investigate how this protection from foreign competition affected domestic manufacturing. On balance, the trade disruptions did not decisively accelerate U.S. industrialization as trend growth in industrial production was little changed over this period. However, the disruptions may have had a permanent effect in reallocating resources between domestic infant industries (such as cotton textiles) and trade-dependent industries (such as shipbuilding).</span></p> <p>&nbsp;</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><h3 align="center" class="GramE"><span style='color:black'>Selected Published Articles.</span></h3> <p class="GramE">&nbsp;</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p><span class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt"><a href="docs/Embargo.pdf">The Welfare Cost of Autarky: Evidence from the Jeffersonian Trade Embargo, 1807-1809</a><span style='color:black'>. Review of International Economics, September 2005.<br> <br> The United States came close to complete autarky in 1808 as a result of a self-imposed embargo on international shipping from December 1807 to March 1809. Monthly prices of exported and imported goods reveal the embargo's striking effect on commodity markets and allow a calculation of its welfare effects. The calculations suggest that the embargo cost about 5 percent of America's 1807 GNP, at a time when the trade share was about 13 percent (domestic exports and shipping earnings). The welfare cost was lower than the trade share because the embargo did not completely eliminate trade and because domestic producers successfully shifted production toward previously imported manufactured goods. </span></span></p> <p>&nbsp;</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><p style='margin-right:-.5in'><a href="docs/AD.pdf"><span class=GramE4>The Rise in U.S. Antidumping Actions in Historical Perspective</span></a><span class=GramE4><span style='color:black'> .</span></span><span style='color:black'> The World Economy, May 2005.</span></p> <p class=MsoNormal5> <o:p>&nbsp;</o:p> </p> <span class="style1" style='color:black'>Empirical studies of antidumping activity focus almost exclusively on the period since 1980. This paper puts recent U.S. antidumping experience in historical context by studying the determinants of annual case filings over the past half century. The conventional view that few antidumping cases existed prior to 1980 is not correct, although most did not result in the imposition of duties. The increased number of cases in recent decades largely reflects petitions that target multiple source countries; the number of imported products involved has actually fallen since the mid 1980s. The annual number of antidumping cases is influenced by the unemployment rate, the exchange rate, import penetration (closely related to the decline in average tariffs), and changes in the antidumping law and its enforcement in the early 1980s. </span> <p>&nbsp;</p></td> </tr> <tr> <td><a href="docs/airbus3.pdf">Airbus versus Boeing Revisited: International Competition in the Aircraft Market.</a><span style='color:black'> (with Nina <span class=SpellE2>Pavcnik</span>). Journal of International Economics, December 2004.</span> <p class=MsoNormal6> <o:p>&nbsp;</o:p> </p> <p>This paper examines international competition in the commercial aircraft industry. We estimate a discrete <span class=GramE5>choice,</span> differentiated products demand system for wide-body aircraft and examine the Airbus-Boeing rivalry under various assumptions on firm conduct. We then use this structure to evaluate two trade disputes between the United States and European Union. Our results suggest that the aircraft prices increased by about 3 percent after the 1992 U.S. - E.U. agreement on trade in civil aircraft that limits subsidies. This price hike is