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On election day in 1992,
a California TV station (Channel 7 in the San Diego area)
conducted a statewide survey of 2500 voters
leaving the polls,
and found, among other things,
that 51%claimed to have voted for Barbara Boxer and 49%claimed to have
voted for her opponent.
On the basis of this sample, they declared Boxer the winner.

If you flip a fair coin 2500 times, what (roughly) is the probability that
it will come up heads at least 51%of the time?

Suppose you have a coin that is biased so that it comes up heads 51%of the
time over the long, long haul.
You flip this coin 2500 times.
What (roughly) is the probability that it comes up heads at least half the time?

If Channel 7 had been willing to bet that Boxer would eventually
win, would you have taken the bet if they offered odds of 2 to 1? 10 to 1?
100 to 1?
dollars to doughnuts?
Next: Fraud
Up: Chance in Minneapolis
Previous: Assignments 6
laurie.snell@chance.dartmouth.edu