Class 2 Probability of rain
- 1. You hear on the nightly weather report that there is a 30% chance of rain tomorrow. What do you think this means?
- 2. How do you think the 30% prediction is determined?
- 3. The next day it doesn't rain. Was the weather predictor correct?
- 4. You watch two news programs each night. Each program gives a weather report which includes a probability for rain the next day. You want to decide which station does the best job. You record each prediction and whether or not it rains the next day. At the end of the year how will you decide which station did better?
Explain a method of paying the weather predictor based on the accuracy of his predictions. Why do you like the method you propose?