CHANCE News 1.06
              (8 Oct to 14 Oct 1992)



>>>>>==========>> ET, Phone us. Newseek 12 Oct 1992 Sharon Begley The latest attempt to find out "is anyone out there". This one sponsored by NASA. The calculation of the probability of success is discussed but the details are left to the reader. "Frank Drake of the University of California, Santa Crus, the astronomer who in 1960 conducted the first modern radio search for ETs, has cast his bet: 'I fully expect to witness the detection of signals from an extraterrestrial before the year 2000.'" <<<========<<

>>>>>==========>> Nonvirulent H.I.V. strain found in infected group. The New York Times 9 Oct 1992 Lawrence K. Altman A report that five people were infected with the HIV virus by blood transfusions from one donor and then did not develop any evidence of illness 7 to 10 years later. Another mystery to add to HIV as a cause of AIDS. The report appears in the 10 October 1992 issues of Lancet. <<<========<<

>>>>>==========>> Miscarriages tied to chip factories. The New York Times 12 Oct 1992 John Markoff A study at Johns Hopkins found that among 30 women who worked with two chemical used in manufacturing semiconductor chips at two I.B.M. plants and then became pregnant, 10 had miscarriages i.e. 33 percent. Out of the 398 pregnancies among women who did not work with the chemicals there were 62, or 15.6 percent, who had miscarriages. <<<========<<

>>>>>==========>> Neglected for years, TB is back with strains that are deadlier. The New York Times 11 Oct 1992 Michael Spector The first of a five part series on the new wave of tuberculosis. The article emphasizes that this could have been prevented and highlights the dangers in cutting back surveillance when a disease appears to have been defeated. <<<========<<

>>>>>==========>> Study ties genes to drinking in women as much as in men. The New York Times 14 Oct 1992 Daniel Goleman Report on a report in the current issue of JAMA (October 14th issue) on alcoholism in women. Previous studies for men showed that genetics appears to account for 50 to 60 percent of the factors that determine a men's vulnerability to a severe drinking problem. This study showed similar results for women. The study was based upon a study of 1080 adult female twins and found that identical twins were significantly more likely than fraternal twins to have histories of alcoholism. <<<========<<

>>>>>==========>> How public opinion really works. Time Magazine 5 October 1992 Daniel Yankelovich, Suneel Ratan A summary of some of the ideas that you will find in Yankelovich's book "Coming to public judgment". Yankelovich believes that to interpret people's opinion on polls you have to know the stage they are in their thinking about the issues. He feels that their opinions in the early stages of their thinking about the problem are not very significant but as the issues evolves there opinions can have impressive quality. <<<========<<

>>>>>==========>> Headache? You skipped your coffee. The New York Times 15 Oct 1992 A popular account of the results of the article: "Withdrawal Syndrome after the double-blind cessation of caffeine consumption" that appeared in the 15 Oct issue of the New England Journal of Medicine. Evidently even mild coffee drinkers have withdrawal syndrome when they quite drinking coffee. Caffeine withdrawal symptoms include headaches, fatigue and mood disturbances. <<<========<<

>>>>>==========>> Ask Marilyn. Marilyn vos Savant St. Martins Press 1993 A book of Marilyn vos Savant's answers in her column in Parade Magazine. A convenient place to find the correspondence on the famous Monty Hall problem. !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! CHANCE News 1.06 (8 Oct to 14 Oct 1992) !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Please send suggestions to: jlsnell@dartmouth.edu >>>==========>>|<<==========<<<