CHANCE News 1.04
              (23 Sept to 30 Sept 1992)


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 If you find this news a nuisance remember it is as easy to get off  
the list as  it was to get on.  Laurie Snell



>>>>>==========>> The Science of Polling. Newsweek, Sept 28, 1992, pp 38-39 We thank Dale Berger for this reference. Berger comments: All right, who taught statistics to the Science editors of Newsweek? A nice discussion of some of the real world factors that make polls less accurate than many statisticians would like to believe - context effects, people who lie, sampling problems, etc. Yet the article includes a gross error. I quote: "The margin of error, claculated according to a textbook staatistical formula, varies inversely with the sample size. In general, about 500 responses gives a possible error of 5 percent either way; 2500 responses decreases it to 1 percent. <<<========<<

>>>>>==========>> 4 hits in 7 games. Looking good. The New York Times, Sept 28, 1992 Gerald Eskenazi From the article: Now that ROBIN YOUNT has become the 17th man to reach the 3,000-hit plateau, will GEORGE BRETT be able to accomplish the same feat in this last week of the season? Brett needs four hits in the Kansas City Royals' remaining seven games to do it. As unlikely as it may seem, of the 17 men who preceded Brett to the 3,000-hit level in the 95 years since 1897, when Cap Anson became the first, eight of them stroked their 3,000th hits in the same year that someone else did. <<<========<<

>>>>>==========>> Dr. Death sheds light on dying. Los Angeles Times September 17, 1992 Nora Zamichow A interview with David Phillips, the UC San Diego sociologist who did the recent study showing that women die too often right after the irbirthdays and men too often right before their birthday. It seems that Phillips has an obsession for studies relating to dying and the article pursues this with him and Phillips gives some of his ideas about such research studies. <<<========<<

>>>>>==========>> A clash of electoral anayses. Boston Globe September 25, 1992 A descussion of the different predictions of the outcome of the election comparing those like Ray Fair who uses economic indicators and other historical data with the more conventional pollsters. <<<========<<

>>>>>==========>> Letters about Duesberg. The New York Times, September 10, September 29, 1992 In an Op-Ed, Sept 10 Dr. Jerome E Groopman warned of the dangers of paying attention to Duesberg's theory that HIV is not the cause of aids. Edward S. Golub writes a letter suggesting that to some extent Groopman's extreme confidence that we know the answers is as dangerous as Duesberg's extreme theory that we don't. His letter is followed by a letter from Duesberg answering some of Groopman's critisisms. <<<========<<

>>>>>==========>> Your normal temperature. Journal of the American Medical Association Sept 23/30, 1992 Mackowiak, Wasserman, Levine The idea that your normal temperature is 98.6 came from a study in 1868 by Carl Wunderlich who averaged more than 1 million measurements. Mackowiak and his group did a study with a much smaller number (700) of measurements but with more accurate methods of measuring temperature and conclude that the average is more like 98.2. They give estimates of the variation to be expected. <<<========<<

>>>>>==========>> AIDS-like illness is found to be rare. The New York Times, Sept 30, 1992 A report from the World Health Organization that they have been able to identify only about 100 cases of an AIDS-like illness in which were HIV negative. They saw no definitive evidence of a new virus. <<<========<<

>>>>>==========>> Help for the heart. Maclean's Sept 21, 1992 D'aarcy Jenish, John DeMont and Sharon Dooyle Drieger A discussion of the recent Finnish study that suggested that a buildup of iron is a risk factor for heart attacks. The article includes interviews with other heart experts and a general discussion of the current ideas of the risk factors and methods of treatment for heart problem. !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! CHANCE News 1.04 (23 Sept to 30 Sept 1992) !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Please send suggestions to: jlsnell@dartmouth.edu