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 In his 1972 book, "Man and The
Computer," former Dartmouth President John Kemeny included his predictions
for the future of computing. How well did he do as a
seer? Here's a quick tally.
Prediction: "I fully expect that within the next
generation we will see computer memories capable of holding the contents of the
largest library in the world."
Outcome: Hit. Online libraries have arrived.
Prediction: It should be possible, using a touch-tone
phone, to type a person's name and address and have the telephone company's
computer locate the number and make the call."
Outcome: Miss. Kemeny had the right idea, but the wrong
technology.
Prediction: "The next decade is likely to see the
development of huge computer networks."
Outcome: Hit. Networks were in their infancy in 1972, but
within a decade, networking became the wave of the future.
Prediction: "I am confident that by 1990 millions of
Americans will have the ability to do significant research in their homes.
Homeowners would buy terminals that cost as little as a black-and-white
television and log on to one of nine strategically placed computation
centers."
Outcome: Hit and miss. By 1990, ordinary people could find all
kinds of information online without leaving home. But Kemeny was wrong about
using terminals to connect to one of nine computation centers.
Prediction: "I do not expect a spectacular increase in
the speed of computers. It is perfectly reasonable to assume that by 1990, they
will be 10 times as fast as they are today."
Outcome: Miss. Twenty-five years after Kemeny made his
prediction, computers were 2,250 times faster than they were in 1972.
Prediction: "I want to argue that it is entirely
feasible for The [New York] Times to provide personalized service for each of
its readers."
Outcome: Hit. Customized newsletters, papers, and portal pages
are part of the daily routine of millions of people.
Prediction: "Businesses could keep their inventory
inside the memory of a computer, and any customer in the region could carry out
a simple computerized search to find out what is actually available in a given
store."
Outcome: Hit and miss. Kemeny got the online inventory part
right. He didn't anticipate the likes of Amazon.com selling to anyone, anytime,
anywhere on the planet.
Prediction: "A computer system could control all the
traffic lights in Manhattan and base its decision on current information on
traffic flows and traffic jams."
Outcome: Hit. In major metro areas, computerized traffic
control systems have increased the capacity of highways without adding
lanes.
Prediction: "I predict that a dramatic effect on the
pattern of employment and the location of offices will come about by the
widespread use of video telephones.
Outcome: Hit. Although video telephones aren't needed by
today's telecommuter, Web-based teleconferencing with Webcam video is already
here and growing fast.
— Lee Michaelides
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